Not just Latinos and younger voters. Democrats are slipping among black voters, too. 2022-04-27 17:55:19


However, recent polls suggest that the advantage Democrats have had with black voters may be regressing, at least a little. It comes on the heels of the 2020 election in which Biden won black voters by less than 80 points weakest margin For a Democratic presidential candidate since 1996 (if your baseline is online polls).
a few weeks ago, Gallup The results released compare Biden’s acceptance rating since October with the first six months of his administration. Much attention has been paid to his drops of over 20 points Youth And Hispanic.

He did not note that Biden’s approval rating among black adults was only 67%. That was down 20 points, from 87% at the start of his presidency, which is somewhat in line with the percentage of black voters who supported him in 2020.

To put this in context, Obama’s approval rating with black adults has never fallen below 75% in Any single Gallup poll. Averaged over time, it has always remained safely above 80%.

Perhaps the fact that Biden’s acceptance rating with black adults is still high when compared to other groups is that the 20-point drop has not received much attention. Regardless, the Gallup poll isn’t alone.

latest CNN/SSRS Poll On the topic, Biden’s approval of black adults was found to be 69%. The proportion of black voters was 74%. newly Quinnipiac University Poll He put Biden’s approval rating for black adults at 64%. a Pew Research Center Poll Last month it had 72% among black voters.

All of these polls showed Biden losing a disproportionate amount of support from black adults (and voters).

Of course, the president’s loss of support with a group does not necessarily translate into changes in electoral preferences. Biden may be opposed to younger voters, but as I have pointed out, their midterm preferences shouldn’t differ radically from the way they voted in 2020, even given the Democrats’ current national environment.

Examination of the general suffrage for Congress, however, indicates that black voters, at this point, appear much less likely to vote for Democrats than you might expect given their voting history.

Take a look at average polls – from CNNAnd FoxAnd Quinnipiac And Bio – Over the past few months. Democrats lead by 62 points among black voters, 73% to 11%. This may sound big, but it is small from a historical point of view.
The 2020 Polls Network Democrats in the National Assembly won the vote by 75 points (87% to 12%). The Data company Catalyst She calculated that the Democrats won by 79 points (89% to 10%). On average together, black voters became Democrats by a margin of 77 points in the 2020 House vote.

What current polls indicate is a 15-point drop from that margin among black voters. For comparison, among Hispanic voters, Democrats are down 5 points from the 2020 House margin.

You’d have to go back to 1990 to find any year, at least according to Pollswhere the Democrats won the National House of Representatives votes among black voters by a narrow margin than their lead in current opinion polls.

When ideology aligns with voting patterns

While Democrats are doing worse among black voters than in 2020, Republicans are not doing better. Things could change as we approach November, and the Democrats could regain some ground they lost.

But there is plenty of room for Democrats to step back from their 2020 baseline, given trends in the recent presidential election twice. Unlike most other demographic groups, black voters who are historically considered conservatives have been fully Democratic. Hillary Clinton beat them by 58 points in 2016, for example.

(In 2004, a good year for Republicans, Democrat John Kerry won conservative black voters by 48 points.)

Why Young Voters Might Not Cost Democrats in 2022
Ideology, however, has become more consistent With voting patterns in recent years. Black voters seemed to follow that trend in 2020. Biden won black conservatives by 20 points, down 38 points from Clinton. It came as Biden took a soft-line for Clinton between black liberals and moderates. Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives also edged black conservatives by 20 points.

There is no recent historical analogy to what happened with conservative black voters in 2020. The mold has already broken.

If Republicans reduce Democrats’ support for black conservatives, it won’t change the fact that black voters, in general, remain a very Democratic group.

However, elections are not won and lost by the winning groups of voters. Margins are what matters.

If we continue to see a movement among black conservatives as we did in 2020, life will become easier for the GOP. Republicans will not need wide margins of victory among other groups to win the election.