Biden is rising, but the GOP has an advantage in the economy, post-ABC poll finds 2022-04-30 23:01:25


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President Biden’s standing with Americans has improved slightly over the past two months, but he remains in negative territory in most assessments of his performance in office and Republicans have significant advantages over Democrats in the key economic indicators that make up the midterm election year, according to the Washington Post-ABC News Poll.

The new poll, while better for the president and his party than from two months, however, highlights the strong winds Democratic candidates face ahead of the November vote. With an overall approval rating of 42 percent, Biden has low scores on his handling of the economy and inflation, and Republicans are more confident than Democrats on both measures.

More than 9 in 10 Americans say they are concerned, at least, about the rate of inflation, which has been at a 40-year high in recent months. This includes 44 percent of those who classify themselves as annoyed. Republicans are more likely to describe themselves as upset about inflation than independents or Democrats.

At the same time, half of Americans (50 percent) say it is easy to find well-paying jobs in their communities, results that reflect the unemployment rate. Near the lowest level in half a century Anecdotally, many “employment” banners are in business windows across the country. Less than 43 percent say it is difficult to find these jobs. Republicans, who generally rate the economy more negatively than Democrats, are perhaps surprisingly surprised to say that well-paying jobs are easy to find.

In a positive sign for Biden and his party, the Post-ABC poll also showed Democrats moving toward near parity with Republicans on voting intentions in the November House elections, often seen as a key indicator of the scale of potential shifts in the balance. of strength. Republicans need a net gain of five seats to seize control of the House of Representatives from Democrats, which would allow them to derail Biden’s agenda for the latter half of his term.

Today, 46 percent of registered voters said they would vote Democrat in their congressional district, compared to 45 percent who said they would vote Republican. Based on historical patterns, Democrats will likely need a greater advantage to avoid losing their majority.

However, last fall, Republicans won by 10 points and in February led by seven points on this question, known as universal suffrage. Almost all of the change since February is the result of a shift toward Democrats among self-identified independents, a group that can be volatile in public opinion polls.

Democrats have a 12-point margin among voters between the ages of 18 and 39; In February, these voters split evenly between the two parties. Democrats have an advantage with these young voters even though they disapprove of Biden’s performance by a 13-point margin, 52 percent to 39 percent.

The same pattern appears among independent registered voters. This group disagrees with Biden by a margin of 21 points but is split 42-42 in a congressional vote.

Although fading The gap between the two sides party members say they will support in November, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents continue to say they are more confident in voting in November than Democrats, by a 10 percentage point margin in the latest poll.

Biden’s overall approval rate among voting-age adults is five points higher than it was in February, when 37 percent of Americans said they approved of his job performance. His rejection rate is now at 52 percent, just below 55 percent in February, But this shift falls within the margin of error. He’s been lively among men and women and has shown improvement among independents and little improvement among Democrats – but has made no gains among Republicans.

However, there is a huge difference in the feelings that people bring to their evaluations of the president. Overall, 42 percent said they strongly disapprove of his job performance, while 21 percent said they strongly agreed.

Biden gets higher scores for Dealing with the war in Ukraine From two months ago – up from 33 percent approval in February to 42 percent in the last survey. But 47 percent disagree, which is the same as in February. This improvement is primarily due to the decrease in the proportion of people without an opinion two months ago.

An even bigger change comes in assessments of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Currently, 51 percent approve of his performance in this area, compared to 44 percent in February. Overall, there has been a 14-point shift in two months, which has led to Biden moving from negative to positive territory regarding the coronavirus, and the level of approval is now similar to what it was last September.

However, there has been no real change in the economy, with 38 percent saying they approve of Biden’s handling compared to 37 percent two months ago. His ratings on job creation were better but still negative overall, with 41 percent agreeing and 46 percent against.

Biden’s worst ratings come The dominant inflation issue, where 68 percent said they disagree, compared to 28 percent who gave him positive marks. The president is notably weak on the issue among independents, who could hold the key to the outcome in several contested House and Senate races in November. More than 1 in 5 independents, 22 percent, say they approve of Biden’s handling of price hikes.

Each political party has advantages in how the public perceives its ability to deal with different issues and problems, but Republicans have an advantage on some issues that drive elections.

On the economy, 50% of Americans say they trust the GOP to do a better job, Compared to 36% who said they trust the Democratic Party more. On inflation, 50 percent say they trust the Republican Party more compared to 31% of Democrats who said so. Republicans have a 12-point advantage (47 percent to 35 percent) on the crime issue, which many GOP candidates emphasize in their campaigns.

On immigration, public opinion is deeply divided, with 43 percent saying they trust Republicans, while 40 percent said they trust Democrats. Republicans and Democrats are deeply divided on this issue while independents are evenly split, with 39% saying they trust the Democrats and 39% supporting the Republican Party.

Education issues occupied the forefront of the political debate over the past year and She played a role in the victory Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin (right) last November. Democrats have been put on the defensive over a variety of aspects of education, from teaching the history of racism to the role of parents in the school curriculum to closing schools and hiding states due to the pandemic.

Democrats have always had an edge on education, but that eroded in post-ABC polls after last November’s elections and in February, with Democrats only receiving three points either way. The new poll showed Democrats with an eight-point advantage (47 percent to 39 percent). Despite the improvement, the margin is still much smaller than the average advantage Democrats have had in opinion polls dating back to 1990.

Democrats’ biggest advantages are on the issue of equal treatment of racial and ethnic groups (52 percent to 31 percent over Republicans) and equal treatment of groups regardless of their sexual orientation or gender identity (55 percent to 26 percent).

The latter have become political flashpoints, with Republican governors and Republican-led legislatures on the move To limit discussion of gender issues to school children and take measures to prevent transgender students from participating in school sports.

with the Supreme Court Close to Decision on Mississippi’s Restrictive Abortion LawAmericans say they trust Democrats more than Republicans to handle the issue, at 47 percent to 37 percent.

Democrats regained a slight edge in determining the party after losing ground over the past year. The current poll found 48 percent identifying themselves as Democrat or Lean Democrat, which is similar to last April but up from 43 percent in February. Meanwhile, 43 percent identify as Republicans or smaller Republicans, down slightly from 46 percent in February but still above 40 percent one year ago.

The ABC Post-Poll was conducted April 24-28 on a random national sample of 1,004 adults, accessed via cell phones and landlines. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for the overall results among a sample of 907 registered voters.