Analysis: Why the Senate’s Future Matters 2022-05-01 07:04:35


Will the season of renewal for former President Donald Trump’s critics reassert his power over Republicans?

Here’s what to watch as election season kicks off on Tuesday.

All 435 members of the House of Representatives and about a third of the Senate face re-election in November. Control of both rooms plays a big role.

50-50 Senate: The Senate is evenly divided, but Democrats control the room with a vote by Vice President Kamala Harris.

222-213 House: House Democrats have a very slim majority. Republicans need only five seats to claim a majority in the House.

Where are the competitive races?

Let’s focus on the Senate. There are 14 Senate seats currently held by Democrats and 21 Senate seats currently held by Republicans that are up for election. Most of these races are not considered competitive.

In fact, according to Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzalez, only three races — in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, all seats held by Democrats — count as neglect. Two races, in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, lean toward Republicans, and one race in New Hampshire leans toward Democrats.

What happens in May?

While Texas held its primaries in March, things accelerated in May and primaries continued through the summer.

Ohio and Indiana start things off May 3. More major states, including Pennsylvania and North Carolina, hold primaries on May 17. Save this calendar.

I don’t live in Ohio or Indiana. Why do I care about these primaries?

CNN’s Simon Bathy wrote the much-read and frequently updated article”10 Senate seats most likely to overturn” Property.

Here’s why she says May is key to the election process:

May is the most important month for the primaries – with some big-name candidates running in the races that will shape the battle for control of the Senate in November. By the end of the month, matches will likely be set in four of the races on our list of likely 10 seats in the Senate — in Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Georgia. (Stay tuned for our latest ranking – with some changes – next Sunday!)

What’s different about the house races this year?

the map! The congressional districts were redistricted after a 10-year census was conducted in 2020.

Some states have attempted to depoliticize the process, but Republicans have used it to recruit majorities in Congress in states like TexasAnd Florida And Ohio. Democrats have tried to do the same in countries like Illinois And New York (last effort failed).

What is the Democrats’ national strategy?

Reportedly, President Joe Biden is frustrated New reports By CNN’s Edward Isaac Dovery and Kevin Liptak, they will move to a more confrontational strategy that includes attacking the Republican Party.

This is a turnaround for a president who has come to office promising to seek unity and acknowledgment that he will need Republican support in order to get big things done. However, Republicans were not satisfied with most of what Democrats promised. The unit did not check.

Democrats think they can compete in Ohio

Democratic Representative Tim Ryan — who is running for an open seat in the Ohio Senate — is pushing an old-school populist letter appealing to union members against a more progressive candidate, Morgan Harper, a former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau official.

CNN’s Eric Bradner writes that economics-focused populist Ryan, like Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, not like Trump. But Ryan and Brown’s populism is right next door to Trump.

What is the Republican strategy?

Before the general election in November, Republicans will focus on the US economy. But during this primary season, they compete over what kind of voters to turn up to vote in the Republican primary. This means appealing to Trump.

Trump is trying to play a kingmaker.

Here’s what Patty told me about Trump’s role:

These primaries say a lot about Trump – but it’s too simplistic to say that the fate of the chosen candidates will be a referendum on his power. This is because many candidates, even those who did not have his endorsement, have wrapped themselves in knots to appeal to his position.

For example, the fact that David McCormick, a former Connecticut hedge fund executive, turned himself into the MAGA (Senate) candidate in Pennsylvania is a victory for the former president and his control of the party.

Even if McCormick beat Trump-backed Oz, it would still be a win of sorts for Trump, if not for Trump himself.

The topic of Republicans reinventing themselves will be shown in Ohio

a path: in Ohio, JD Vance He made a full 180-degree turn from where he was with Trump in 2016, and it worked: He got the endorsement. (It’s not hard to see why House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy quickly tried to explain more of his recently revealed criticisms of Trump.)

This kind of resanding for the candidate, regardless of whether Vance wins on primaries night, is a win for Trump.

And if Vance does not win, one of his opponents who have criticized him for being a Trump critic will likely win instead; This is also an imminent victory for the former president.

Candidates can change between May and November

Primary elections can push candidates into difficult-to-explain situations during a general election, when they should in theory attract the most moderate and independent voters.

a path: Democrats have been jubilant spectators to Trump’s increasingly poor and costly loyalty contests, but many of those will end at the end of May, when these GOP candidates are released to begin associating their Democratic opponents with the incumbent unpopular president.

How does the nation feel?

Inflation is real. stagnation possible. People are not satisfied with the direction of the economy, which is an important indicator in politics. Three-quarters of Americans in Quinnipiac’s latest poll He said the economy was not in good or bad shape. Partisanship plays an increasing role in Americans’ views of the economy, but people are also reacting to rising prices due to inflation.

What if elections were held today?

CNN’s director of polls, Jennifer Agusta, has pointed me in a new direction NPR / PBS NewsHour / Marist Poll This shows Republicans 47% versus Democrats 44% when voters were asked, overall, whether they would vote Republican or Democrat in their congressional district. This result is within the poll’s margin of error.

But Agesta told me to take a look at Biden’s acceptance rating to assess the national mood. It’s not good news for Democrats.

Most people do not approve of Biden at the moment.

The average April 27 CNN poll about Biden’s handling of the presidency found that 41% of Americans approve of the job he does, with 54% disapproving.

That’s relatively unchanged from the previous poll averages earlier in April and the end of March. Those put Biden’s approval at 39% and 40%, respectively.

In a recent Quinnipiac poll, only about a third of adults in the United States approved of Biden’s handling of the economy. Nearly a third of Americans in that poll chose inflation as the most pressing issue facing the country.

And nearly all recent polls have found Biden’s approval rating even lower than his handling of the presidency overall. When combined with the growing number of opinion polls finding concerns about the economy rising, it doesn’t paint a picture of a president on the verge of recovery.

This could be a “disaster” for Democrats

CNN’s Chris Celisa, who has been watching and writing about the midterm elections for a very long time, writes that the way people feel in May It may be difficult to change it by November:

There are only 194 days left between today (April 28) and the November 2022 elections. Politically, this is a very short window to change people’s perception of the economy – particularly if inflation (and gas prices) remain close to their current levels.

If things stay roughly the same today — in terms of economic measures such as GDP (gross domestic product) and CPI (consumer price index) and Americans’ perceptions of the state of the economy — Democrats will face disaster at the ballot box this fall. The question will not be whether they maintain a slim majority in the House and Senate, but rather how large an electoral gap they will have to try to break out of over the next decade.

The majority in the Senate usually lasts for at least four years

If the Democrats, who barely took control of the Senate after 2020, lose control after 2022, it will be Historic rarity and political embarrassment. Except for the peculiar situation of a party shift in 2001, the last time a party held a majority in the Senate for only two years was 1953-1955.