All 435 members of the House of Representatives and about a third of the Senate face re-election in November. Control of both rooms plays a big role.

50-50 Senate: The Senate is evenly divided, but Democrats control the room with a vote by Vice President Kamala Harris.

222-213 House: House Democrats have a very slim majority. Republicans need only five seats to claim a majority in the House.

Where are the competitive races?

Let’s focus on the Senate. There are 14 Senate seats currently held by Democrats and 21 Senate seats currently held by Republicans that are up for election. Most of these races are not considered competitive.

What happens in May?

While Texas held its primaries in March, things accelerated in May and primaries continued through the summer.

I don’t live in Ohio or Indiana. Why do I care about these primaries?

Here’s why she says May is key to the election process:

May is the most important month for the primaries – with some big-name candidates running in the races that will shape the battle for control of the Senate in November. By the end of the month, matches will likely be set in four of the races on our list of likely 10 seats in the Senate — in Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Georgia. (Stay tuned for our latest ranking – with some changes – next Sunday!)

What’s different about the house races this year?

the map! The congressional districts were redistricted after a 10-year census was conducted in 2020.

What is the Democrats’ national strategy?

This is a turnaround for a president who has come to office promising to seek unity and acknowledgment that he will need Republican support in order to get big things done. However, Republicans were not satisfied with most of what Democrats promised. The unit did not check.

Democrats think they can compete in Ohio

Democratic Representative Tim Ryan — who is running for an open seat in the Ohio Senate — is pushing an old-school populist letter appealing to union members against a more progressive candidate, Morgan Harper, a former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau official.

What is the Republican strategy?

Before the general election in November, Republicans will focus on the US economy. But during this primary season, they compete over what kind of voters to turn up to vote in the Republican primary. This means appealing to Trump.

Trump is trying to play a kingmaker.

Here’s what Patty told me about Trump’s role:

These primaries say a lot about Trump – but it’s too simplistic to say that the fate of the chosen candidates will be a referendum on his power. This is because many candidates, even those who did not have his endorsement, have wrapped themselves in knots to appeal to his position.

For example, the fact that David McCormick, a former Connecticut hedge fund executive, turned himself into the MAGA (Senate) candidate in Pennsylvania is a victory for the former president and his control of the party.

Even if McCormick beat Trump-backed Oz, it would still be a win of sorts for Trump, if not for Trump himself.

The topic of Republicans reinventing themselves will be shown in Ohio

This kind of resanding for the candidate, regardless of whether Vance wins on primaries night, is a win for Trump.

And if Vance does not win, one of his opponents who have criticized him for being a Trump critic will likely win instead; This is also an imminent victory for the former president.

Candidates can change between May and November

Primary elections can push candidates into difficult-to-explain situations during a general election, when they should in theory attract the most moderate and independent voters.

a path: Democrats have been jubilant spectators to Trump’s increasingly poor and costly loyalty contests, but many of those will end at the end of May, when these GOP candidates are released to begin associating their Democratic opponents with the incumbent unpopular president.

How does the nation feel?

What if elections were held today?

But Agesta told me to take a look at Biden’s acceptance rating to assess the national mood. It’s not good news for Democrats.

Most people do not approve of Biden at the moment.

The average April 27 CNN poll about Biden’s handling of the presidency found that 41% of Americans approve of the job he does, with 54% disapproving.

That’s relatively unchanged from the previous poll averages earlier in April and the end of March. Those put Biden’s approval at 39% and 40%, respectively.

In a recent Quinnipiac poll, only about a third of adults in the United States approved of Biden’s handling of the economy. Nearly a third of Americans in that poll chose inflation as the most pressing issue facing the country.

And nearly all recent polls have found Biden’s approval rating even lower than his handling of the presidency overall. When combined with the growing number of opinion polls finding concerns about the economy rising, it doesn’t paint a picture of a president on the verge of recovery.

This could be a “disaster” for Democrats

There are only 194 days left between today (April 28) and the November 2022 elections. Politically, this is a very short window to change people’s perception of the economy – particularly if inflation (and gas prices) remain close to their current levels.

If things stay roughly the same today — in terms of economic measures such as GDP (gross domestic product) and CPI (consumer price index) and Americans’ perceptions of the state of the economy — Democrats will face disaster at the ballot box this fall. The question will not be whether they maintain a slim majority in the House and Senate, but rather how large an electoral gap they will have to try to break out of over the next decade.

The majority in the Senate usually lasts for at least four years