Analysis: Today is a catastrophic day for Democrats in 2022 2022-04-28 09:06:50


The country’s gross domestic product declined at an annual rate of 1.4% between January and March—a staggering reflection from the 6.9% GDP growth the United States recorded in the last quarter of 2021. The overall health of the nation’s economy.)

And surely a bad omen, the GDP contraction was the worst performance for this measure since The economy has entered a recession amid a nationwide lockdown in the spring of 2020.

More than four in ten (42%) Americans said economic conditions in America were “bad,” while another 38% said they were only “fair” in a Gallup poll in April. Only 2% said economic conditions were ‘excellent’, while 18% said they were ‘good’).

More than three in four — 76% — of Americans said the economy was getting worse, compared to 20% who said it was getting better.

The Gallup Economic Sentiment Index, which measures participants’ sentiments about the economy from +100 (very high) to -100 (very low), is currently at -39. (It was -6 in July 2021).

The economy – as you might expect from these choppy numbers – is a topic on the minds of many Americans. About four in 10 Americans told Gallup that economic issues are the biggest problem facing the country, with inflation topping that list. (The The consumer price index was 8.5% in Marchwhich is the highest number in 40 years.)

Add all of these factors, and you get a very toxic political environment facing President Joe Biden and Democrats as they prepare to defend their majorities in the House and Senate in November.

“It’s the worst political environment I’ve lived in in my 30 years as a political advisor,” John Anzalone, a Biden pollster, said recently. he is right.
Midterm elections in a president’s first term are routinely considered bad for their party in Congress. but that The trend has become much worse When the president is not as popular as now with Biden. (In a Gallup poll in the first quarter, Biden’s job approval rate is only 41%.)

Two factors complicating any attempts by Biden to change the economy—and most importantly, voters’ perceptions of it—are about:

1) Despite being the most powerful position in the country, the president’s ability to stimulate the faltering economy is limited. Biden’s “Rebuilding Better” legislative agenda appears to be dead in the water. In addition, Biden is already in a very bad position with voters regarding the economy; Only 33% of Americans agreed with how he handled the matter in a Quinnipiac University Poll Released earlier this week.

2) There are only 194 days between today and the November 2022 elections. Politically, this is a very short window to change people’s perception of the economy – especially if inflation (and gas prices) remain close to their current levels.

If things stay roughly the same today — in terms of economic measures like GDP, CPI, and Americans’ perceptions of the state of the economy — Democrats will face disaster at the ballot box this fall. The question will not be whether they maintain a slim majority in the House and Senate, but rather how large an electoral gap they will have to try to break out of over the next decade.