The country’s gross domestic product declined at an annual rate of 1.4% between January and March—a staggering reflection from the 6.9% GDP growth the United States recorded in the last quarter of 2021. The overall health of the nation’s economy.)
More than four in ten (42%) Americans said economic conditions in America were “bad,” while another 38% said they were only “fair” in a Gallup poll in April. Only 2% said economic conditions were ‘excellent’, while 18% said they were ‘good’).
More than three in four — 76% — of Americans said the economy was getting worse, compared to 20% who said it was getting better.
The Gallup Economic Sentiment Index, which measures participants’ sentiments about the economy from +100 (very high) to -100 (very low), is currently at -39. (It was -6 in July 2021).
Add all of these factors, and you get a very toxic political environment facing President Joe Biden and Democrats as they prepare to defend their majorities in the House and Senate in November.
Two factors complicating any attempts by Biden to change the economy—and most importantly, voters’ perceptions of it—are about:
2) There are only 194 days between today and the November 2022 elections. Politically, this is a very short window to change people’s perception of the economy – especially if inflation (and gas prices) remain close to their current levels.
If things stay roughly the same today — in terms of economic measures like GDP, CPI, and Americans’ perceptions of the state of the economy — Democrats will face disaster at the ballot box this fall. The question will not be whether they maintain a slim majority in the House and Senate, but rather how large an electoral gap they will have to try to break out of over the next decade.